Crypto: BlackRock Predicts Billions More in Its Crypto ETFs

Fear is good for business. On November 9, the WatcherGuru account relayed a forecast attributed to BlackRock. The management giant expects security concerns to push billions of dollars already invested in crypto towards its ETFs. This projection comes as attacks on wallets are multiplying.

Key Points of This Article:

• The WatcherGuru account relayed a forecast from BlackRock on November 9 without identifying a speaker.
• The manager expects security to push billions held in crypto towards its ETFs.
• In its bitcoin ETF IBIT, the keys are entrusted to Coinbase Custody and kept offline.
• ETF shares do not allow sending or receiving bitcoins on the blockchain.

The Fear of Hacking as a Business Argument

The post from WatcherGuru attributes the forecast to BlackRock without citing a source or document, and nothing confirms it beyond this relay.

The same message mentions the $15 trillion in assets managed by the firm. This amount situates the scale of the firm, but it does not represent any crypto commitment.

An investor actually makes two distinct decisions, detailed in an analysis published on November 9: to have exposure to cryptos, and to manage their own coins.

The fear of hacking can change the second decision without affecting the first; the desire for exposure remains intact, and only the manner of holding shifts. It’s the transition from cash under the mattress to a safe at the bank, a sort of change of guardian rather than fortune.

This custody requires real efforts: losing the recovery phrase blocks access to funds, while disclosing it offers the same access to a thief.

Delegating these tasks relieves the investor who does not want to maintain their backup procedures, and it is this need that BlackRock sees turning towards its funds.

A position that seems somewhat curious. Indeed, American ETFs have experienced large capital outflows following the Binance hack. On the day after the hack, October 30, $643 million in outflows were recorded on BTC ETFs.

What Do You Lose by Entrusting Your Keys to an ETF?

The answer is found in the documentation of IBIT, BlackRock's listed bitcoin fund. Its prospectus, dated July 31, 2025, and updated in November 2025, names Coinbase Custody Trust Company as the custodian of the bitcoins.

The fund keeps the private keys of the custody stock offline, in cold storage. A separate balance is used for market operations.

The investor buys and sells shares through their broker, never touching a wallet, and the management of keys disappears from their daily life.

The counterparty is noted in the same document. Shares provide a beneficial right to a fund, not direct control of bitcoins.

The prospectus warns that volatility can degrade the value of shares, and that compromised keys remain synonymous with permanent losses.

Another limitation is that ETF shares do not circulate on the blockchain, reminds Blockstream, which prevents any sending or receiving of bitcoins.

Direct holding, on the other hand, transfers from wallet to wallet. The two formulas serve different uses, even if their prices move together.

The announced migration would not represent new money either. Buying existing shares and seeing the fund grow are two distinct phenomena. And bitcoin ETFs are already experiencing rotations, as when sovereign funds took the place of hedge funds.

A countercurrent, as $200 million left spot ETFs in early November. If the prediction holds true, Bitcoin will not have gained a buyer, just changed safes.

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