Bitcoin: JPMorgan Sees It Outperforming Stocks and Gold in the Long Term

JPMorgan Asset Management has integrated bitcoin into its long-term market forecasts for the first time. In its 2027 report, the bank anticipates a compound return of 10% per year over the next 10 to 15 years. This exceeds the expected 7.5% for large U.S. stocks and 5.5% for gold. The trade-off is significant, as JPMorgan estimates the annual volatility of bitcoin at 55%.

In Brief

• JPMorgan forecasts a compound return of 10% per year for Bitcoin.
• Large U.S. stocks are expected to yield 7.5% and gold 5.5%.
• Despite this projection, Bitcoin remains absent from the portfolio allocations proposed by the bank.

Bitcoin Enters JPMorgan's Forecasts for the First Time

This marks a first in the 31 editions of JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The bank, which had already increased its exposure to Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter of 2026, now directly assigns a long-term return assumption to BTC.

The figure chosen is 10% per year in compound returns. U.S. REITs follow with 8.2%, then small-cap U.S. stocks at 7.7% and large caps at 7.5%. High-yield U.S. bonds reach 6.6%. Gold remains at 5.5%.

In this selection, bitcoin thus comes out on top. The report covers a horizon of 10 to 15 years and over 200 asset classes. JPMorgan clarifies that these figures are used for strategic portfolio construction. They do not constitute price targets or a promise of performance.

Mathematically speaking, $100 growing at 10% per year would be worth about $259 after ten years and $418 after fifteen years. This obviously assumes that JPMorgan's average return materializes.

High Returns Come with 55% Volatility

The second figure is much less comfortable. JPMorgan estimates the annualized volatility of bitcoin at 55%. It hovers around 18% for large U.S. stocks and 17.2% for gold.

The gap explains another peculiarity of the report. The estimated annual arithmetic return for bitcoin reaches 20.9%, more than double its compound return of 10%. Significant drops and successive recoveries greatly reduce the actual compounded performance over several years.

This volatility remains central to comparisons between bitcoin and the yellow metal. In September, JPMorgan still estimated that Bitcoin had a greater catch-up potential than gold, particularly regarding positioning in ETFs and futures markets.

The 2027 report goes further by now assigning a quantified return assumption to Bitcoin. However, JPMorgan still does not treat it as a traditional stock or bond. The bank describes it as a speculative asset that can also serve as a hedge against monetary easing.

JPMorgan Still Does Not Include Bitcoin in Its Model Portfolios

The figure of 10% does not mean that JPMorgan automatically advises its clients to buy Bitcoin. The distinction is clearly made in the report. BTC enters the return assumptions but not the examples of strategic allocation. The bank primarily cites the instability of its correlations with other assets.

Bitcoin can sometimes move with stocks. At other times, its behavior is more akin to gold or completely detached from both. JPMorgan thus believes it is still difficult to sustainably assign it a diversification function.

The contrast with the bank's previous analyses remains interesting. At the end of 2025, JPMorgan had calculated a theoretical price close to $170,000 for Bitcoin against gold. This was a valuation and volatility comparison over a much shorter horizon. The new report changes the scale. JPMorgan no longer provides just a price scenario. Bitcoin now enters the same 10-15 year projection exercise as stocks, bonds, real estate, or gold.