Trump Beats the Fed: How Trading Boom Explodes in the UAE

When Donald Trump speaks, retail traders in the United Arab Emirates certainly do not wait to read the footnotes. According to Capital.com, the political announcements of the former American president are generating a real trading boom in the UAE, with almost immediate price fluctuations and waves of trades that, in intensity, even surpass the reactions to the decisions of the Federal Reserve.

Summary

• Key points
• Political announcements stimulate the retail trading boom in the UAE
  • Trump's announcements cause almost immediate price fluctuations
  • Trading volume exceeds responses to Fed decisions and US economic data
• Capital.com records historic trading volumes and expands crypto services in MENA
  • Record volumes in the first quarter of 2025 reflect local interest and global volatility
  • Capital Vault obtains UAE license for spot services on virtual assets
• Oman and Iran propose a temporary shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Proposal to improve regional stability and reduce navigation risks
  • Market signals indicate increased likelihood of a formal agreement by the end of 2026
• FAQ
  • What has caused the increase in retail trading in the UAE?
  • How does the trading volume related to Trump's announcements compare to other market events?
  • What is the significance of the shipping route proposal put forward by Oman and Iran?
  • What regulatory milestone has Capital Vault achieved in the UAE?

Key points {#Key_points}

• Capital.com records a surge in retail trading activity in the UAE after every political announcement by Donald Trump.
• The volume increases related to Trump surpass those generated by the Federal Reserve's decisions and major US macroeconomic data.
• Capital.com recorded record trading volumes in the MENA region in the first quarter of 2025.
• Capital Vault, an affiliate of Capital.com, has obtained a license from the UAE Capital Market Authority for spot services on virtual assets.
• Oman and Iran have proposed a temporary shipping route and a mine clearance plan in the Strait of Hormuz.

Political announcements stimulate the retail trading boom in the UAE {#Political_announcements_stimulate_the_retail_trading_boom_in_the_UAE}

Political statements have become a market trigger as powerful as traditional macroeconomic events, according to Capital.com’s direct experience in the region. This is evident from the words of Tarik Chebib, Middle East CEO of the platform since 2022, who described to Fortune a phenomenon that has now become recurrent in the UAE.

Trump's announcements cause almost immediate price fluctuations {#Trump's_announcements_cause_almost_immediate_price_fluctuations}

"We see the price fluctuation immediately, and this leads to trades," Chebib explained. "We notice that there is more activity around this type of announcements." This is not a marginal effect: every time Trump intervenes on sensitive political issues, traffic on the platform grows measurably, almost in real-time.

Trading volume exceeds responses to Fed decisions and US economic data {#Trading_volume_exceeds_responses_to_Fed_decisions_and_US_economic_data}

The most significant data concerns the comparison with other market catalysts. The increases in MENA 2025 trading volume linked to Trump's statements surpass, in intensity, the response of the same traders to the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the publication of key U.S. economic data. For a retail trader in the Emirates, today a statement from Trump is worth as much as a corporate quarterly report or a central bank meeting, with the difference that it arrives without warning.

Capital.com marks historic trading volumes and expands crypto services in MENA {#Capitalcom_segna_volumi_di_trading_storici_e_amplia_servizi_crypto_in_MENA}

The phenomenon related to political announcements fits into an already exceptional context for the Middle Eastern market, where Capital.com has recorded unprecedented numbers just as it strengthened its offering on digital assets.

Record Volumes in Q1 2025 Reflect Local Interest and Global Volatility {#Volumi_record_nel_primo_trimestre_2025_riflettono_interesse_locale_e_volatilita_globale}

Capital.com reported record trading volumes in the MENA region for the first quarter of 2025, a result that the company attributes both to the growing local propensity for retail trading and to the broader wave of volatility that has swept through global markets. The professional journey of Chebib, who previously led the Middle East for Pepperstone, another major retail broker, illustrates how competitive the brokerage landscape in the region has become.

Capital Vault Obtains UAE License for Spot Services on Virtual Assets {#Capital_Vault_ottiene_licenza_UAE_per_servizi_spot_sugli_asset_virtuali}

The most relevant chapter on the regulatory front concerns Capital Vault, an affiliate of Capital.com, which has obtained a license from the UAE Capital Market Authority to operate as an agent or "matching principal" in the buying and selling of virtual assets and to provide custody services on behalf of clients. This is a UAE crypto spot license that marks a qualitative leap compared to the only contracts for difference offered so far by the platform.

Once operational, the service will allow clients in the Emirates to buy and hold real crypto directly through the Capital.com app, with Capital Vault managing execution, custody, and settlement of transactions. This is a substantial difference compared to CFDs, which only offer exposure to the price without actual ownership of the underlying asset. Capital Vault operates as a separate regulated entity, with governance, custody, and risk management distinct from the rest of Capital.com’s business, and has opened an office in Abu Dhabi where it is building a local team dedicated to virtual assets.

The approval comes after the Capital Market Authority introduced, in April, a regulatory framework on virtual assets that expanded the number of regulated activities from three to eight, establishing requirements on business conduct, alternative trading systems, anti-money laundering controls, and prudential standards. This move confirms how the Emirates are building a regulatory infrastructure designed to attract operators who want to offer crypto and traditional assets under the same regulated roof.

The emerging picture is that of a platform benefiting from volume regardless of the direction of traders' bets, while the directional risk remains entirely with the operators. What the data from Capital.com ultimately shows is that the boundary between political news and the financial market has effectively dissolved for a new generation of active retail traders.

Oman and Iran have proposed the establishment of a temporary navigation route along with a mine clearance plan, according to a statement from the Omani Foreign Ministry, amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following the recent conflict between Iran and the United States.

Proposal to Enhance Regional Stability and Reduce Navigation Risks

The initiative aims to stabilize the area and facilitate commercial transit, although the strait remains partially restricted due to existing mines and persistent security concerns. The proposal nonetheless signals a step forward towards a possible formal agreement between Oman and Iran, with the goal of ensuring safer navigation in one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways.

Market Signals Indicate Increased Likelihood of Formal Agreement by End of 2026

Market prices reflect growing optimism regarding the possibility of formalizing the agreement. As of the deadline of August 31, the probability of a finalized understanding between Iran and Oman regarding Hormuz has risen to 34.5%, up from 16% the previous day. The sub-market with a horizon to September 30 shows an even higher probability of 57%, consistent with the idea that market participants consider a resolution over a longer timeframe more realistic. However, actual implementation will depend on formal agreements and the reactions of regional and global actors, including the United States, while the persistence of mines and security restrictions continues to pose a concrete risk to navigation in the strait.

Observers and operators will need to monitor any formal statements from the Iranian and Omani governments: a joint press conference or a signed agreement would be decisive signals for the markets. The response from the United States and other Gulf states could also impact the actual feasibility of making the proposed route operational.

FAQ

What has caused the increase in retail trading in the United Arab Emirates?

The increase was triggered by political announcements from Donald Trump, which generated almost immediate price fluctuations and an increase in operations on the Capital.com platform.

How does the trading volume related to Trump's announcements compare to other market events?

The volume increases recorded after Trump's statements surpass those observed following Federal Reserve decisions and the release of key U.S. economic data.

What is the significance of the naval route proposal put forward by Oman and Iran?

The proposal aims to create a temporary navigation corridor and to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit risks and improving regional stability.

What regulatory milestone has Capital Vault achieved in the United Arab Emirates?

Capital Vault has obtained a license from the Capital Market Authority of the UAE to offer spot services on virtual assets, allowing for the custody and trading of real cryptocurrencies in compliance with local regulations.

Content created with the assistance of artificial intelligence and human editorial review.