Kalshi and Polymarket Reach $53 Billion in July Trading Volume

The prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, with a combined monthly trading volume of $53 billion in July, doubling from $26 billion in May, primarily focused on sports events. Political trades account for a smaller portion, with Polymarket averaging about $2 billion per month this year and Kalshi less than $300 million; as of July, trading related to control of the House and Senate has exceeded $30 million. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously prohibited Kalshi from launching contracts on congressional control and once considered classifying election contracts as gambling. The agency withdrew the related proposal in February and released a structured event contract framework proposal on June 10, intending not to classify elections as gambling. In the same month, Kalshi launched the Midterms Hub, displaying the probabilities of individual district traders alongside average polling values. Former NBC News political director Chuck Todd will host the NEXTPredict summit in New York from October 22 to 23, expressing a desire to understand the interaction between polling agencies and prediction markets, as well as the uses of trading. Research indicates that a $3,500 bet can cause price changes of at least 5 cents in 97% of midterm election-related markets; a Morgan Stanley study found that after over 72 million Kalshi trades, prices closely aligned with outcomes.

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